10 to 10 years of technology
In 10 years, as computing power increases exponentially, there will be many technology changes rapidly than 10 years ago.
According to nature, can not predict what will "break" technology, but you can still see what's going on in the laboratories of research and development (R & D) on world and can see the "clues" the dominant technology is important in the future. This is a full-time employment of Dave Evans, head of Cisco's future technology and also the chief engineers of Internet business solutions group of Cisco (Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group - IBSG).
Evans outlined the top 10 trends are believed to change the world in 10 years, with comments in his interviews over the past year and the "visionary" as well as analysts in other industries.
Internet of Things
Today, the number of devices (things) are connected to the Internet (see article "Internet of Things: The interactive network, ID: A1107_69) more than the people on earth. The transition to IPv6 connection seemed to support endless. Cisco IBSG predict Internet-connected devices will reach 50 billion by 2020, equivalent to more than 6 devices per person. As such, most people in the developed world will have at least 3 devices connected to the Internet full time, including devices such as computers, smart phones, tablet PCs, TV.'s move on to the sensor network, using low-power sensors to collect , communications (data / signal analysis ...), and distribute data on a large system.
These sensors are based on standards such as Zigbee, 6LoWPAN (IPv6 over Low power Wireless Personal Area Networks) and Z-wave, which is being used by the two ways that can predict the (predictable) and unpredictable be. Zigbee has been "embedded" on the clock and smart devices. Z-Wave is the basis of automation services for Verizon's smart. The Dutch have initiated the sensors implanted into the cow's ears to locate and monitor its health. In addition, the sensor is also "embedded" in the footwear, medicines such as asthma inhalers and other devices medical surgical exploration. There's even a plant in Sweden are connected to the sensors to monitor the "thinking" and "mood" of it, with a little help "translate" the computer interpretation (Interpretive engine) by Ericsson to develop (or # @ connectedtree ectree).
Data that is not only Big zettaflood
"Big Data" refers to the amount of data a "giant" but compared to "zettaflood" it is nothing.
In 2008, only about 5 exabytes (about 1 billion DVD discs) is generated. But just three years later (2011), we have created more than 1.2 zettabyte (Terabyte This can be visualized as equivalent to a specific person on earth message (tweeting) in 100 years or a favorite TV shows and one hour per day for 125 million years. The number of people prefer to watch high-definition video (HD) and increased by 91% to predict the data on the Internet in 2015 will be video.
Cisco is focusing most resources to the "problem" zettaflood (very large data storage) with the great improvements to the network to transfer more data without being "dropped", especially the video which we we love.
Cloud "wise"
Cisco predicted, most zettaflood data will be stored on a cloud. Of course, most of the data will be accessed from the cloud, rather than just on the private network. By 2020, one third of the data will stay or through cloud. Cloud services revenue worldwide will increase 20% per year and expenses for the improvement of information technology and cloud computing can be up to several billion dollars in 2014.
In fact today, the cloud was strong enough to help us communicate easily thanks to the ability to interpret language in real time, helping to increase knowledge by accessing Alpha supercomputer as Wolfram, and improve health by using the computing platforms such as IBM's Watson in fresh ways. We can communicate in many ways much richer.
Besides video, the power of cloud computing is moved to the terminal also changes the ability to communicate with our equipment because of its ability to compile almost in real time. Currently, Android phones can perform searches by voice (voice search), the device sending the question (query) on the Google cloud to be decoded and receive answers. We will see much more intelligent architecture into communications.
With devices are connected, detailed network can present information, obtained from individual sensors to know that the person is asleep and routing incoming calls to voice mail; or know the person is driving 100km/gio should both speed is not the time to call the (video call).
'Net' next generation
Evans made a case for the improvement of network speed in his home. Network performance increases 170,000 times in 1990, only every time the Internet connection using telnet protocol.
Currently, Evans is 38 continuous connection and bandwidth over 50Mbps, enough for remote conferencing (telepresence), video streaming (streaming movies) and playing online games together. More than 10 years, Evans said that the network speed can be increased by 3 million times today.
When most industry is concentrated in 40G and 100G, the new format of the network continued to be created. Vint Cerf, one of the fathers of the Internet, presented the new protocol needed to build inter-planetary network (Interplanetary network), can send data at very large distances without delay.
Evans noted that the multi-terabit networking (multiterabit netwoks) laser is used in the research process. And the first thing is happening on the concept called "quantum networking" (quantum network) is based on quantum physics. This is related to trap quantum (quantum entanglement), in which two particles "relatives" even isolated in any way, about when a particle changes, the remaining particles will change immediately.The quantum network is possible in the next few decades.
World over smaller and smaller
With persistent connections, social networking has the power to "odd" to change the culture, as we have seen revolutionary Egypt (Egyptian Revolution) has led to the spring of Arab (Arab Spring). Social influence will continue to move quickly between cultures.
Information will be disseminated faster, smaller and smaller world over. For example, the news (tweet) of the Japanese in the recent earthquake has been sent to many people interested (follower), even before the U.S. Geological Survey (U.S. Geological Survey) may give warning official tsunami to Alaska, Washington, Oregon and California.
The capture, disseminate and view photos of the event only takes place in a heartbeat.This in turn creates faster influences between cultures.
The power of energy
With the speed of the population continues to grow today, Evans estimates that in two decades, every month there will be a city of a million people was born. More effective methods to provide energy for the city to become a compulsory demand, especially solar energy.
The new solar energy can meet the need for us. In fact, to solve the problem of global energy needs today, needs to have 25 super-solar plant (25 solar super sites) - each plant occupied 58km squares. Evans compares this with the need to break than 170,000 square km of forest each year. On the other hand, a solar power station as it took three years to complete.
In 3D
Many "food" (item) will move from physical to virtual. Currently, we download electronic books (e-book) and movies, instead of buying books and DVD. A technology called in three-dimensional (3D printing) will allow us in any kind of physical items, from food to the bike using the printer industry. This striking mirror-like concepts (replicator) of the fictional film "Star Trek".
Evans said that in three dimensions is the process of connecting multiple materials into objects based on 3D data, typically "stack" of this layer to another layer (layer upon layer).
In fact, everything from toys to cars to buildings are being printed so the process can be envisioned as a material in multiple layers overlap. However, in three dimensions may cause legal challenges.
In the not too distant future, we will be able in the internal organs of humans. In March last, Dr. Anthony Atala of medical institutions regeneration Wake Forest (Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine) has a campus in the kidney to prove at TED. This is not living tissue, but is done under realistic model.
Add a new tree
The virtual, both physical (robots) and the online avatar (online avatar) can be added to the workforce (Workforce). Currently, these characters are capable of speech recognition, text to speech and to have knowledge (knowledge) about the experience of experience.
By 2020, the robot will be able to better human nature. For example, IBM's project Blue Brain is expected in 10 years to create a human brain based on hardware and software.IBM believes that within a decade, they will begin to see the "sense" that appears on this brain.
By 2025, the number of robots will be more people in the developed world. By 2032, the robot will have the upper hand man of intellect. And by 2035, the robot will completely replace the labor force (people).
In addition, we will see the creation of sophisticated avatar. Evans see the IBM Watson is a form of virtual (virtual human) when Watson could answer a question like a real person with accurate results. A patient can use a virtual rather than seeking WebMD (health advice website, medicines ...) or the hospital can use virtual machines to enhance patient care.
From now on, the actual increase (augmented reality - AR, see article "The nine most influential technology, ID: 1012_88 and" breakthrough technology, ID: 1001_79) and use the computer by just (gesture-based - see the article "Design gesture sensing systems", page 76) will be introduced into classrooms, medical facilities and communications.Currently, system identification and control based on images (machine vision) that allows users to capture images of the smartphone game Sudoku with them to get results almost immediately puzzle.
Yes, there is a remedy for that disease
In 10 years, the medical technology will develop more rapidly, more complex, computing power available in the smaller format. Devices such as micro robots (nanobot) and the ability to develop alternative institutions based on our model will become popular. The fully integrated can make brain-machine interface (brain-machine), enabling people with spinal cord injury have a normal life.
Currently, we have the game and control the wheelchair by thought; Intel's software can detect in the brain and indicate that you are thinking and tools that can predict what you are planning on implementation.
Borg or human?
According to Stephen Hawking, who is entering the stage of design evolution (self-Designed evolution). Get ideas from medical technology to move to the next level, healthy people will be provided with the tools to improve themselves. Evans lists examples:
July / 2009 - The Spanish researchers have discovered a substance for image storage memory (photographic memory).
May 10/2009 - The Italian and Swedish scientists have developed artificial hands for the first time feel.
February / 2010 - Implant retina (Retina implants) restore vision to blind patients.
6 / 2011 - Texas Heart Institute have developed heart "spin" (spinning heart) do not beat (pulse), no rules and no breaks.
At first use, the technology will be designed to repair the damage so as not to injure the brain tissue or to the improvements that they have more complete.
Eventually, people will use a lot of technology to modify, improve or enhance the agency, to become Borg (user-made parts; Borg is taken from the name of an army in the filmStar Trek). Futurist Ray Kurzweil is a pioneer of this idea with a concept he called a singularity (singularity), and peculiar in that machine, "peace" to each other and become a "species" new. (Kurzweil said this would take place in 2054).
Evans is not convinced that this strange, especially during the period that Kurzweil offers. But then, Evans had to go to college Singularity in Mountain View and find reliable data and at last he agree that we're on that trajectory.
